For The Division - Steelers @ Browns - Pregame Thoughts
Screenshot via Steelers Youtube.
Welp, I just got done watching the Ravens/Packers Saturday Night Football game. I was hoping I’d get to celebrate an early division win, but alas, Derrick Henry had other plans…
The Pittsburgh Steelers have an opportunity to secure the AFC North crown and a home playoff game, but they’ll have to get by their division rival Cleveland Browns to do so. The Browns may only have 3 wins, and I know we laugh at them all the time and make jokes, but the Steelers haven’t won a game in Cleveland since October of 2021. It might be in our best interest to take this game very very seriously.
The weatherman is calling for rain and 18 mph winds at kickoff, which will only exacerbate the significant challenges we’ll already be facing against this very good Browns defense.
On the injury front, the Steelers have, unfortunately, already ruled out some straight DAWGS for this game, including T.J. Watt (Lung), Brandin Echols (Groin), James Pierre (Calf), Isaac Seumalo (Tricep), and Calvin Austin III (Hammy). Any one of those would’ve hurt my soul, let alone the lot of them, but I digress. Jalen Ramsey gets the start in the slot, and probably more Chuck Clark at Safety. Clark broke up a would-be touchdown last week against the Lions, though it felt like he dropped several INT opportunities. We’ll see what this week has in store. Not listed on the injury report but just as notable, if not even more so, DK Metcalf will miss this game - the first of his two game suspension.
For the Browns, their injury report is pretty horrendous as well, though most of their guys have an opportunity to play. TE David Njoku (Knee) and LB Winston Reid (Back) have been ruled out, and their questionable guys include backup QB Dillon Gabriel (Shoulder), RB Dylan Sampson (Hand), starting OG Wyatt Teller (Calf), TE Harold Fannin (Groin - will play), among others.
Between the weather report, the injury report, Metcalf’s suspension, and the fact that the Browns defense is usually elite in Cleveland, all signs point to this one being a straight-up slugfest. Draft Kings has the O/U set at 34.5, the lowest of any other game this week, and rightfully so in my opinion. Points will probably be at a premium, so we’re going to need a clean game from Danny Smith’s special teams unit - hell, a splash play couldn’t hurt either.
Shedeur Sanders will get the start at quarterback for the Browns this week, marking the second time this season they’ll start a rookie against us. Mike Tomlin is 27-6 as a head coach against rookie quarterbacks, and I know Sanders has brought a lot of media attention to the Browns QB room, but his play simply hasn’t been impressive to this point in the season. He’s thrown 7 interceptions in five career games, and the Steelers are 5th in the league in turnover differential at +9. The Browns, on the other hand, are 28th at -6 (NGS/NFL Pro). No T.J. Watt, but we will get Nick Herbig back from injury, so I suspect he and Alex Highsmith will be able to create a little chaos off the edges, in which case I expect the turnover trend to continue. The Browns boast one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
On the other side of the ball, the big story line will be Myles Garrett closing in on T.J. Watt and Michael Strahan’s sack record (22.5). With 22 sacks on the season so far, he needs just one to break the record, and if I may state the obvious: it would really suck for him to do that against the Steelers with Teej on the sideline. We held him without a sack in our first meeting this year…can we make him go 0 for 2?
The Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league (44.1%-NGS), and they’re allowing just a 53.8% completion percentage when playing man, ninth-best in football. That doesn’t bode well for the Steelers whose WR1 (DK) is suspended, and their best route runner (CAIII) is out with a hamstring. Thank goodness Kenneth Gainwell has come on as strong as he has lately - we will desperately need him, among many others, to step up and deliver in the pass game. Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are not needle-movers, but they’re veterans that should be able to step in and deliver against a three-win team.
There really are no excuses for this one, even though it feels like there could be. A loss in this one would set up a showdown in Pittsburgh in the last game of the year for the division. I will be extremely irritated if we find ourselves in that position. If we can’t beat the three-win Browns, then we don’t deserve to be in the postseason. Get it done. For the division…
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