MUST WIN - RUN THE DAMN BALL - Bills @ Steelers - Pregame Thoughts
I hope all the Steelers fans that haven’t already jumped ship had a fantastic thanksgiving! Of course, most of yinz that did jump ship have probably climbed back aboard after the Ravens bungled to the Bungles. You can find me hanging on for dear life to the side of the boat for now, but the next obstacle is a monumental one.
At 7-4 and the 7th seed, the Buffalo Bills have had some serious issues on both sides of the ball - if my fellow Steelers fans are comfortable with that, then I invite them to drink the hell out of that kool aid. I’ll tell yinz what I see, though: I see that big 6’5 cornfed country boy out of Wyoming with his team barely holding on to that last playoff spot. That is a significant problem in my opinion.
On the injury front, the Steelers are going to be without LT Broderick Jones, who’s headed to IR with a neck injury, as well as DT Derrick Harmon who’s out with a knee. It’ll be “all systems go” for everyone else, including, most notably, Mr. Aaron Rodgers, who will likely be playing with a cast on his left arm, but doesn’t have an injury designation for this game (broken wrist).
For the Bills, they’ll be without their two starting tackles, Spencer Brown (Shoulder) and Dion Dawkins (Concussion). They’ll also be missing WR Curtis Samuel (Elbow/Knee) and LB Terrel Bernard (Elbow). I’ll be honest with yinz…with Samuel/without Samuel…whatever you think about the Bills’ WR room, I’ll remind yinz that DJ Moore was constantly running open against us last week, and we actually got lucky because he missed some opportunities. I understand why their receiver room is a big talking point this week…I just don’t think that’s real, because teams have already shown that guys can be easily schemed open against some of these coverages that the Steelers like to live in. Not to mention…the starting QB on the other side is not your average starting QB…
As I have implied…we face a big problem this week in the form of Bills QB Josh Allen. His 28 total touchdowns (18 passing/10 rushing) is the same amount of touchdowns that our offense has generated all season. Once you factor in the rest of their rushing touchdowns (9), it becomes clear that they’ve scored a lot more than us this season - their 28.5 PPG ranks 5th in the NFL. Obviously, taking away the run game and keeping them off schedule will be important, but taking away Josh Allen’s first read and lighting his ass on fire with the defensive front is how you secure victory. That’s the reigning, defending NFL MVP we’re talking about…I know he’s gonna be good - we just need to do what we can to contain him and keep him from being great. Good luck to the boys with that one.
Another thing the Steelers can do to secure victory is keep that big sumbitch off the field in the first place. I say this shit all the time…and it’s clear to me that the coaching staff doesn’t read this blog or care about my opinion(LOL)…but here we go again: run the football. 50 times in a row…I don’t care. Just run it. Please. Pretty please. The Bills defense ranks NUMBER ONE against the pass allowing 168.2 passing yards per game, and they rank NUMBER THIRTY (30) against the run allowing 148.9 rushing yards per game. You know what happens when you run the football in the NFL? - The clock moves. Time of possession. Catch my drift? Let’s hope Mike Tomlin does, too *face palms*.
Let’s just assume for a second that Mike Tomlin does catch my drift, although history tells a different story…but if he does, then we can expect to see a lot of heavy personnel, and probably a pretty even split in carries for Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. With Aaron Rodgers’ broken left wrist being a factor in this game, there’s a lot of speculation that the Steelers could substitute their ‘under-center’ stuff with some ‘pistol’ stuff to avoid any bad C/QB exchanges, which could work to our benefit since there’s no tape of us doing that this season, although I don’t think that wrinkle would dramatically change the playcalling. Nick Farabaugh of Penn Live mentioned on his podcast that he recalls the Steelers running some 2-back stuff with both Gainwell and Warren out of the pistol during training camp a few months ago, so that could be a fun addition to the offense. We shall see.
I know I’ve taken a fairly negative tone in this post, but there are some weird wrinkles in this game that will probably keep it close. This feels like one of those instances where a Mike-Tomlin-led team goes up against an inferior opponent and stinks it up, except we’re the inferior opponent and I think it’s possible that the Bills stink it up. For starters, the Bills are -2 in turnover differential, to the Steelers +8. Josh Allen has already eclipsed his 2024 INT total (6) with 9 on the season - he will take risks, and we probably need to come down with one if we’re going to win. Also, our most impactful players on defense play on the edges, and the Bills are going to have backups in both tackle spots. If we’re able to take away the quick passing game, and I do realize that’s a big if, then Highsmith/Herbig/Watt should eat. All that said, if we abandon the run game again, then we will lose and we might as well start thinking about the draft!
Follow me on twitter/x: @jay_newm
