SNF - Packers @ Steelers - Pregame Thoughts
Screenshot via Steelers Youtube.
Here we go, again:
The 4-1-1 Green Bay Packers are traveling to Pittsburgh for a Sunday Night Football matchup against the 4-2 Steelers. 4-2 looks pretty good to me, but how those two losses unfolded has left a sour taste in the mouths of Steelers Nation, myself included. With that being said, they’ve had a mini-bye to prepare for a nationally televised matchup against the NFC’s #1 seed, and a win in that spot would go a long way in preserving hope for the fanbase that this isn’t a failed experiment. For what it’s worth: despite being horrible on Thursdays, Mike Tomlin is 14-6 as a head coach after TNF games.
On the injury front, the Steelers will be without WR Scotty Miller (finger), and C Zach Frazier (Calf) is listed as questionable, though it was reported earlier in the week that he intends to play. Calvin Austin III (shoulder) doesn’t have an injury designation, and will play for the first time since week 4.
For the Packers, their defensive line has taken a beating lately and at least one of their starters, Devonte Wyatt (Knee) is questionable for this one. Lukas Van Ness (Foot) has been ruled out, and they have various injuries to their depth pieces as well. WR Dontayvion Wicks (calf) has also been ruled out, which is tough for them, but they will have WR Christian Watson - their deep ball guy who has yet to play this season will make his debut.
We met some version of the Jordan-Love-led Green Bay Packers in 2023 and came away with a win, but that version didn’t include Micah Parsons. He’s coming off a masterclass performance last week where he had 3 sacks and 4 TFLs in a tight win against the Cardinals. I know Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out quick (2.63 TT avg. - 3rd fastest), but Micah Parsons has 16 quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds) this season, which is third most in the NFL. Similar to what we did with Myles Garrett a couple weeks ago, it’s going to be critical that our offense locates him and sends the necessary help in his direction - wherever that may be on any given play. I mentioned that their d-line is thin for this game, so it’s really gonna be about slowing down Rashan Gary and Myles Garrett in my opinion. Neutralize those two and the world should be our oyster - easier said than done, though.
Today just happens to be National Tight Ends day, and it could take some big plays for the Steelers to keep this ball game close. Lucky for the tight ends, the Packers are not good at defending the middle of the field, and TEs have given them fits this season. Aaron Rodgers knows that, and I’m sure he’ll be looking to capitalize against his former squad. Look for Jonnu Smith and/or Pat Freiermuth to play a massive role in this game. Don’t worry, though, I didn’t forget about Mount Washington. The Packers really like to play with a light box (4th-highest rate), but the Steelers are having a ton of success running the football, especially when they bring in the heavy line with Spencer Anderson and Darnell Washington. We’ll see if the Packers make an adjustment in that regard and stray away from their norm, but the Steelers run game vs. their defense figures to be an intriguing matchup in my opinion.
I’ll be honest with yinz, the other side of the ball scares the hell out of me in this matchup. Like I mentioned earlier, we’ve met Jordan Love before in 2023, but that was his first season as a full-time starter; almost a faux rookie season. He has really grown into his own since then, and it shows in the confidence he plays with these days. Love is not scared to hold on to the football and take shots down field. We obviously had a horrible time trying to cover guys last week, so vibes are low in that regard. It’ll likely fall on the pass rush to make a play at some point, but the good news for the secondary is that J. Love is good for the occasionally risky football. He has only thrown 2 INTs on the year, but some of that is lack of execution by the players he is playing. We have had our hands on some passes lately, but it has been several weeks since we actually came down with an INT. If and when Jordan Love puts the ball in harm's way, we have to come up with one; if not that way, then we need a forced fumble or SOMETHING. Two games in a row we have lost the turnover battle, and if we make it a third against this team, we’re practically guaranteeing ourselves a loss.
On the run game, I’ve always been a big fan of their RB Josh Jacobs. He runs between the tackles. He runs outside. He catches bodies in pass protection (see video above from last week). He catches passes out of the backfield. He splits out wide. You name it. He’s a nightmare. Of course, the defensive line will have to play strong, but I’m also looking at Payton Wilson, Cole Holcomb, and Patrick Queen - even the safeties Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliot - everyone has to play gap sound football. I, like everyone else, am sick and tired of hearing Teryl Austin and Mike Tomlin talk about stopping the run after the week that the Bengals receivers had last week, but at the end of the day, they’re not wrong. Chase Brown looked like prime Bo Jackson out there last week, so imagine what Josh Jacobs might be able to do…can’t happen. We’re better than last week’s performance, and I think we show that tonight, regardless of the outcome of the game.
I’ll never be able to explain it to yinz in a way that makes sense, but if you’re a true Steelers fan and have been for a while, you’re somehow going to understand this: I am more confident in this team tonight than I was last week against the Bengals. Go back and read my ‘pregame thoughts’ from last week…I knew the wheels were going to fall off the bus in that spot - I think we all did. And I realize it makes no sense, because the Bengals are essentially dead in the water and the Packers are vying for a Super Bowl right now, yet I think we somehow all have the same feeling on this, and for that I’m grateful. Without that, I’d think I was absolutely insane. Win the turnover battle, stop the run, show the world we’re not a joke.
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