SNF - Steelers @ Chargers - Pregame Thoughts
Screenshot via Steelers Youtube.
The Steelers are off to Los Angeles for a Sunday Night matchup against the Chargers that figures to be a tight game. The Chargers come into this game with a record of 6-3, but it has to feel like they’re fighting for their lives every week in that wild AFC West division that includes the 8-2 Denver Broncos and the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs. They also just lost their star LT Joe Alt for the rest of their season to compound the difficulties for their already-battered offensive line. Even as winners of two-straight games, I suspect they’re coming into this one with a ton of urgency.
On the injury front, we will continue to be without WR Scotty Miller (Finger), S Jabrill Peppers (Quad), and LB Cole Holcomb (Ilness). We can also add G Isaac Seumalo (Pectoral) who left last week’s game early and will be out for this one. Spencer Anderson will start at guard in the meantime, which sucks, because his use in the JUMBO sets has been huge for us. I hope the coaching staff doesn’t stray away from the heavy stuff with Anderson now in as a starter, but I guess it depends on the amount of faith they have in guys like Ryan McCollum and Andrus Peat.
For the Chargers, they’ll be without their two starting OTs, and the status of their CB Tarheeb Still (Knee) is in doubt. One thing to note: their long snapper Josh Harris is questionable with a chest injury. They also allowed the Tennessee Titans to return a punt for a touchdown last week, so I know Danny Smith and his special teams unit(s) are licking their chops ahead of this one - a big play from the special teams could be the difference.
This is a very difficult game to make any predictions about, because there’s a lot of weird numbers out there that say this could be a really bad game for the Steelers. For example, the Chargers are second in the NFL in time of possession, and the Steelers are 30th. That reads pretty bad, but I think it’s also fair for me to ask: Which version of the Steelers defense are we getting this week? The version from last week that included Ramsey and Dugger at the safety spots looked a lot better in coverage than what we had seen before (don’t bring up the box score, the coverage was better, go see for yourself). We’ll see if that was a flash in the pan or a sign of things to come, but I feel good about it this week.
If this is the same Jim Harbaugh that I have come to know and love over the years, then the Chargers will certainly be trying to establish the run early in this game. Currently, they’re 10th in rushing yards per game (124) and 7th in yards per rush (4.8). They use a lot of fullbacks and tight ends in the run game - you should see this BEAST they use at FB in their power scheme, Scott Matlock, every bit of 300 lbs and looks scary as hell moving in motion. Look out for #44. The Steelers are middle-of-the-pack at stopping the run, ranking 14th in rushing defense, but I have largely felt good about that group’s ability to stop the run when we need to. Consider this one of those times where we probably need to.
I say we need to stop the run, because that’s the Chargers’ identity, and we can’t have their offense operating on schedule all day. With that being said, QB Justin Herbert is unequivocally their best and most important player. This kid is tough as nails, and one of my favorite players in the league (not that I actually give a shit about anyone not wearing the black & gold). I’m scared as hell of his arm, but he also leads all quarterbacks with 305 rushing yards this season, just one yard shy of his career high. He will use those legs to extend plays and run for first downs. Mike Tomlin defenses largely do well against “mobile” quarterbacks, though I wouldn’t exactly describe Herbert that way. The moral of the story is, I hope Herbert's legs have Mike Tomlin and Teryl Austin’s attention, especially on third downs.
This Steelers defense has had some tough moments against tight ends, and this week they draw another rookie, Oronde Gadsden II, who leads all TEs in deep receiving yards this season with 128 (NGS/NFL Pro). Check out how they use him in this play above from last week against the Titans. He’s down on the line of scrimmage, but at the snap he’s right into his wheel route for a 34-yard gain. No window dressing, here. They just really like this kid as a down-field target. We’ll want to keep him under wraps, and the best way to do that is for those guys on the EDGE to take advantage of the two backup tackles they’ll be facing. The EDGE guys, Watt, Herbig, Highsmith, and Sawyer, have had favorable matchups this season where they didn’t really live up to the expectation, though that was more of a coverage issue than a pass rush issue. It’s worth noting that Justin Herbert has been pressured 30 more times than any other quarterback in the league this season (165 - NGS/NFL Pro) coming into this week. Yes, t-h-i-r-t-y more times than anyone else. The Steelers rank 2nd in time to pressure at 2.53 seconds. We should set his ass on fire, I would think.
The last thing I want to note about this game also has to do with Mr. Herbert. Sorry if this seems like overkill, but I only see the Chargers coming away with a win if Justin Herbert plays like an MVP. Anyways, he’s targeting in-breaking routes at a near-40% rate, one of the highest rates in the league and the highest rate of his career (NGS/NFL Pro). He has thrown for 1,059 yards to in-breakers, most in the NFL, and the Steelers defense has allowed the most yards to in-breakers this season at 1,085. Earlier in this post, I mentioned Ramsey and Dugger at safety as something that would hopefully be a catalyst for some good things in coverage, and that’s going to have to be as true as ever against this team. Also, Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson, both of which have been spotty in coverage this season, are going to have to be on their Ps and Qs in this one, no pun intended. We cannot defend the middle of the field the way we have so far this season.
This one felt a little long-winded, but the Chargers are a damn good football team, and I have a ton of respect for Jim Harbaugh. I wanted to give this matchup the proper attention. Still, the Chargers have a lot to overcome right now with a ton of guys on IR, and their defense hasn’t been playing the way they expected them to coming into the season. In truth, I think the Steelers have the slight edge in all three phases for this week, and while I think this is going to be a hard-fought, low-scoring game, we should come away victorious. . .But, we’re on primetime, so we’ll see. I wish this was a 1 pm game.
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