Steelers @ Lions - Pregame Thoughts
Screenshot via Steelers Youtube.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are taking a short trip to the Motor City for a Sunday afternoon matchup against the Detroit Lions. Anybody that knows me knows that when it comes to football, it’s pretty much Steelers or die for me - every college/NFL game that I watch, I watch through the lens of “how can the people on this field affect the Steelers in the future?” With the Lions safely residing in the NFC, however, I have found myself a silent supporter of theirs over the years, and I really like the regime they’re working with right now. This should be a fun one!
The injury report for both sides is pretty horrendous. For the Steelers, they’ll be without LB T.J. Watt (Lung), CB James Pierre (Calf), LB Nick Herbig (Hammy), and OG Isaac Seumalo (Tricep). The loss of Nick Herbig really stings in lieu of what TJ Watt has been dealing with - I’m sure we’ll see a ton of rookie Jack Sawyer, and we brought back LB Jeremiah Moon and elevated him for this game as well. This is the thinnest we’ve been at EDGE this season, so we’ll see what it looks like without Herbig and Watt.
For the Lions, they’ll be without S Kerby Joseph (Knee) and OT Giovanni Manu (Knee). They also have a litany of guys questionable - most notably OG Christian Mahogany (Fibula), C Graham Glasgow, OT Taylor Decker (Shoulder), and CB Amik Robertson (Hand). For what it’s worth, I think most of those questionable guys will play per reports, but their offensive line is clearly banged up, and Robertson will be playing with a cast on his hand. Pair that with the loss of Kerby Joseph, and that all paints an ugly picture for the Lions in my opinion, especially when you consider how the Steelers might try to beat them.
The over/under, according to Draft Kings, is aptly placed at 52.5, in my opinion. This game has ‘shootout’ written all over it. With or without Amik Robertson, we should be able to test this Lions secondary deep. We’ve seen an uptick in 11-personnel since adding Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the fold - I think Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers are more comfortable having guys out there that have been there and done that, even if there are better receivers on the roster (in my opinion). The Lions basically live and die in man coverage, and while their secondary is stretched very thin, MVS and Thielen aren’t man-beaters, so it’ll be interesting to see what gives in those matchups. It wouldn’t make a ton of sense to go back to a bunch of 12 and 13-personnel now against this team. With that being said, the Lions are middle-of-the-pack stopping the run too - we should have a lot of success against this defense, and thank goodness for that, because I think it’s going to take more than 30 points to win this game.
The Lions offense is probably the best in the league, spearheaded by their star RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Stopping him will be paramount to our success, and I just don’t know how much faith I have that we’re going to be able to do that. The Steelers coming into this game paper thin at EDGE certainly doesn’t help. We’ll have DT Derrick Harmon back in the fold for the first time in almost a month, which helps things in the interior, but Gibbs is as gifted an outside zone runner that exists in the NFL. There’s going to be a ton of pressure on our LBs and DBs to bring him down in space - they have done that extremely well at times, and other times…well…not so much (see vs. BUF).
If James Pierre was healthy for this matchup, I’d be telling yinz to grab your popcorn, because these Lions receivers can get LOOSE. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are as big a problem together as the two dudes in Cincinnati, in my opinion. Joey Porter Jr. has been a demon in man coverage, so how they choose to deploy him will be interesting. I could see him shadowing Jameson Williams with them using a scheme-conscious approach to stopping St. Brown, but that’s really just a guess. Also, Jameson Williams is one of the most underrated receivers in the league - no matter how you shake it, I think the Lions are going to put up a lot of points in this one, so it’ll fall on the offense to keep up.
I’m going to do something a little taboo…let’s keep it a buck about this game: the Lions are playing for their playoff lives - they’re not eliminated with a loss, but they already need losses from other teams to have a chance, so they’ll be rightfully treating this like an elimination game. For Pittsburgh, their playoff hopes lie almost exclusively on the outcome of their week 18 game against the Ravens. This Lions team has real Super Bowl aspirations, and I expect them to come out and play that way, because their postseason chances really hinge on that. They’re 7.5 point favorites right now, and honestly, that feels about right. I’m not in the business of straight up predicting Steelers losses, but I’ll be watching this one with a grain of salt.
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