Week 3: Steelers @ Patriots - Pregame Thoughts
It’s amazing what two weeks can do to the psyche of an NFL fanbase. It was great to be combing through the bad after a win in week one, but the bad seems to get amplified after a loss, which is I think what we’re seeing this week. In truth, the slow start was kinda expected, though maybe some of the trouble along the way was very unexpected (like the run defense). Whatever the case, the league waits for no one to get their shit together, and we have a chance to get right on the road in New England.
I won’t sugarcoat this for yinz: Mike Tomlin has been terrible against the New England Patriots throughout his coaching career. His 3-10 record against them is evidence enough, but the way some of the losses have looked over the years has certainly soured me as a fan. Having said that, all 13 times he has coached against the Patriots (as a head coach), Bill Belichick was the guy on the other sideline. This time, his coaching adversary will be Mike Vrabel, who Tomlin is familiar with both as a player and as a coach. Tomlin is 3-0 against Vrabel as head coaches, so we’ll see if the Patriot way holds up in this one.
The Patriots’ new additions to their defensive line have my attention, personally. That includes Milton Williams, Harold Landry III, and K’Lavon Chaisson. The Patriots currently hold the league-high in sacks with nine, and they’re generating pressure at a 43.4% rate (NFL pro). I thought the Steelers o-line played okay against Seattle, but ESPN analytics still has them ranked 31st in pass block win rate through two weeks. Needless to say, I’m wildly concerned about their ability to keep Aaron Rodgers clean in this ball game.
Beyond that, the Pat’s defense has been swiss cheese through two weeks, although they’re hoping that changes this week - CB Christian Gonzalez is officially questionable for this game, leaving the door open for him making his 2025 debut. If he plays, that certainly complicates things for a Steelers passing offense that is 1-1 in the ‘good game’ department. They’ll already have Carlton Davis III and Alex Austin to deal with, although they’ve had a tough start to the season in my opinion, though I wouldn’t say it’s necessarily their fault. Schematically, they’ve been content with running soft zones and allowing teams to dump things underneath in the pass game, and guys just haven’t been rallying to make the tackles. They’re allowing an 82.9% completion percentage to QBs on throws under 10 air yards (NFL Pro) so far this year - the Aaron Rodgers special, if he can stay upright.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers defense has been blitzing at a higher rate than we’ve seen in recent years, and it might be wise for them to continue doing that - Drake Maye posted the third-lowest completion percentage (54.5% via NFL pro) when blitzed last season, so he can be slowed down in that regard. I’ll say this as well: the Patriots receiver room may be pretty deep, but they don’t really have any one guy that I think we need to be worried about. Even Stefon Diggs, at this stage of his career, is not an ideal WR1 for anyone looking to contend. Our secondary should be able to be stickier in coverage in this game, although I’ll once again be looking at the coaching staff and praying that they put these guys in position(s) to succeed. It’s worth noting that we will, once again, be without Joey Porter Jr. (Hamstring) and DeShon Elliot (Knee).
Still, it’ll be the much-maligned Steelers run defense that I think has most of the fanbases’ attention. The Raiders were able to get after the Patriots in week one - giving up just 60 rushing yards on 3.3 yards per carry. They had a bit of a get-right game against the Dolphins defense, 122 yards on 4.2 yards per carry, but that is the Dolphins defense that we’re referring to. This is a matchup that the Steelers should win, on paper, with or without Derrick Harmon, who appears slated to make his NFL debut (hell yeah). But, if the first two weeks have shown us anything, it’s that paper is paper and results are results - and they’ve shelled out a lot of money on a defense that has been trash so far. We’ll see what happens tomorrow, but really, I just want to see signs of life against the run. Show me that we can at least compete in that regard. Inserting Derrick Harmon would almost certainly help in that regard, although we’ll see what his snap count looks like. He couldn’t have come at a better time, to be honest. I cannot wait to see him with a helmet.
Anyway, Rhamondre Stevenson is a former 1000-yard guy and someone that is certainly capable of breaking runs if we’re not gap-sound. TreVeyon Henderson is someone that I thought might end up in the black and gold. He has already made noise as a pass catcher out of the backfield with 8 catches through two games in his young rookie season. We’ll have to keep an eye on him, for sure.
I won’t lie to you guys, after the way we played last week, this is a tough game to gauge for me. The last time I checked, the Steelers were -1.5 favorites in New England, and I do think we’re the better team by a fair margin, but I thought that last week and that game wasn’t very enjoyable. Even though the Patriots defense feels like it’ll be elite when they figure it out, they haven’t looked great so far this season. The same exact thing can be said about the Steelers defense. So, while I’m inclined to predict a low-scoring game and a Steelers win, in truth I’m not comfortable with that prediction. It’s the NFL, and anything goes. I’m sure I’ll be extremely stressed during the game and pissed off about it, but I think we’ll look back at this one as a really good game. Please beat the Pats.
Follow me on twitter/x: @jay_newm
