Week 6: Browns @ Steelers - Pregame Thoughts
The AFC’s oldest rivalry continues tomorrow as the Browns and the Steelers meet for the 147th time, dating back to 1950. In recent years, the rivalry has been pretty lopsided; Mike Tomlin’s record against the Browns is 27-8-1. Still, that 2020 playoff loss in Pittsburgh will weigh heavy in my brain for a long time, so I’m not moved by that “Browns haven’t won a regular season game in Pittsburgh since 2003” stat that has been circulated. I hate the Browns, and I wanna beat ‘em by 60 - just being forthright.
The Browns are coming off a tough loss in London to the Vikings, but they have to like some of the things they were able to do offensively against that defense. David Njoku caught 6/67/1TD, and their rookie runner Quinshon Judkins had a breakout game - 23 carries for 110 yards (4.8 yards per) and he caught a pass for 18 yards as well. They also seem to have a lot of faith in their rookie QB Dillon Gabriel, but with six seasons of college football under his belt, it’s tough to think of him in that way. We’ll see if he’s able to put together a productive career as a starter, but I do think he has an edge processing defenses that most rookie QBs don’t have.
Obviously, when you think about the 2025 Cleveland Browns, their defense is the first thing that comes to mind. Myles Garrett, Maliek Collins, Mason Graham, Jerome Baker, Denzel Ward - these guys don’t mess around. We’re talking about one of the most complete defenses in the NFL - and maybe the best defensive line in the NFL. According to Next Gen Stats (NFL Pro), the Browns defense has contacted rushers behind the line of scrimmage on 60.6% of carries against them this season, highest in the NFL and most by any team since 2018. There’s a narrative out there about the Browns defense being elite in Cleveland and bad on the road, and maybe there’s some truth to that, I’ll let yinz decide, but I’m not moved by that. They’ve got the talent, so I anticipate that we’re getting the best defense in the NFL - just know the narrative exists if you wanna find it.
As I said before, this is a complete defense, so the troubles run deeper than just the run game. These guys can man cover, and do so at an extremely high level. Check out this play from Denzel Ward (above) from week three against the Packers. Ward is manned up with Dontayvion Wicks here, and he travels with him from the left/outside of the defense, all the way to the right sideline to break on the ball for a PBU. That’s a great DB play, but it’s really just business as usual for him. The good news is, they don’t move him around a ton - he lines up left/outside on 93.3% of his snaps (NFL pro), so we’ll be able to manufacture easier touches to guys like DK Metcalf if we choose to move him around like we have a lot so far this season. Still, they’ve got Tyson Campbell lining up opposite Ward, and Grant Delpit back there - getting guys open is going to be a challenge. This game could prove to be a good test for how our offense might fare against the best of the best later in the year, especially with Calvin Austin III being ruled out.
Outside of CAIII, the Steelers are completely healthy coming into this matchup; Jalen Ramsey was expected to miss time with a hammy but he was a FP in practice on Friday, and they removed his questionable tag for this game - he will play. Alex Highsmith is also making his return from an ankle sprain, but Nick Herbig has been an absolute star in his absence, so I would expect that his snap count will be limited to some degree while he works himself back into football-game-ready shape. This will be the first time that all of our defensive starters will be healthy and active at the same time, which is a tough thing for a Browns offense that is leaning so heavily on rookies like Dillon Gabriel, Quinshon Judkins, and TE Harold Fannin Jr. It’s also worth noting that Mike Tomlin is 14-4 as a head coach coming off a bye week.
I have a great deal of respect for this Browns defense, and I have no doubts they will make our lives difficult tomorrow. I won’t lie to yinz, though, this should be a pretty stress-free win. If we’re expected to buy into this Steelers defense as a unit that can make us relevant in January, then they need to handle business against bottom-of-the-league offenses in October. Also, we have yet to win a game at Acrisure Stadium this season. We’ve only played one game there so far, but it’s week six. Let’s go ahead and get that out of the way. We should win, and as for what I think the difference in the game will be, consider this from Steelers.com: “Pittsburgh has a turnover ratio of +7, only the Jaguars are better. The Steelers now have multiple takeaways in three of their four games and did have one takeaway against the Jets in the season opener. Cleveland has a -4-turnover ratio, only five are worse. Only three teams have turned the ball over more than Cleveland. Only four teams have turned the ball over less than Pittsburgh. The Browns defense only has two interceptions and only two offenses have thrown more interceptions (6) than Cleveland. Only the Jaguars have more takeaways than Pittsburgh and no defense has more fumble recoveries.”
Steelers by a million.
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