Week One: Steelers @ Jets - Pregame Thoughts
We made it yinzers.
This weekend, the boys are traveling to East Rutherford, New Jersey for a REGULAR SEASON matchup against the New York Jets. 239 days will have passed since the last meaningful Steelers game when this one kicks off tomorrow at 1 pm EST. Now that we’re back to football games that matter, I’m happy to say that we’re relatively healthy going into this one, all things considered. Nick Herbig has been a limited participant in practice this week, with Derrick Harmon being the lone man out. Herbig is officially listed as questionable for this one. As for the Jets, they’re dealing with a season-ending injury to one of their starting guards, Alijah Vera-Tucker. Joe Tippmann (2023 second round pick) will move into that spot; he started all 17 games for the Jets last season at Center. Their o-line wasn’t good last year, so any loss there for them is a tough one, I’m sure.
The big storyline going into this game will, of course, be the unintentional QB swap that happened between these two teams this offseason. The Steelers week one starter from 2024, Justin Fields, will start for the Jets, and the Jets week one starter from 2024, Aaron Rodgers, will start for the Steelers. At the time of this writing, the Steelers(-3) are the favorites going into this game.
I think the Steelers’ biggest roadblock to victory in this game will be Jets’ DE Will McDonald IV. He led their team in sacks last year with 10.5. He primarily lines up at LDE (the right side of the offensive line), which would match him up with Troy Fautanu most of the time. However, the Jets move McDonald around a lot, so if they view Broderick Jones as a liability, don’t be surprised to see him line up on the opposite side. They liked McDonald vs. Broderick Jones last year, as they were lined up against each other for 21 pass-rush snaps; he finished with 6 pressures and a sack off that matchup. The Steelers MUST keep this guy under control.
If we can assume that there will be no communication issues on the second and third level on defense, then I think Justin Fields is going to have a really tough time in this game. There’s coverage talent everywhere at ILB and CB for Pittsburgh, but these guys haven’t played much real football together, so I’m not expecting them to come out looking perfect. Still, between Jalen Ramsey, JPJ, Patrick Queen, Payton Wilson, Brandin Echols, Darius Slay, among others, Justin Fields is probably going to have to work some tight windows, and I just don’t believe he can do that consistently. Also, we have one of the best pass rushes in the football world, and Justin Field has the longest average time to throw since he entered the league in 2021 (3.10 seconds). All of these things just spell disaster for the Jets’ offense in my opinion.
Luckily for the Jets, the Steelers offense isn’t a proven bunch either, and I don’t necessarily think they’re going to have a great game tomorrow, either. The Jets brought in former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to be their new head coach. Last year, under Aaron Glenn, the Lions played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (47.7%). The Jets CB room is a capable bunch as well, so that will be a tough challenge for us. Sauce Gardner vs. DK Metcalf should feed families. Metcalf struggled when the two battled last season - in man coverage, Sauce allowed one catch on four targets for 28 yards to DK. Not good, but DK didn’t have no damn Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball last year, so we’ll see what their 2025 matchup has in store.
I can throw a million different numbers at you, but truth be told, none of that matters. As I’ve insinuated already, the 2025 Pittsburgh Steelers have hardly played any football together. Nearly all of the starters sat all of the preseason, minus a drive or two in preseason week 3. If you just put the Steelers’ and Jets’ depth charts side by side, I think it is clearly lopsided in our favor by a fairly significant margin. For the Jets, despite a significant change at QB, their core starters on defense and in their skill spots remain largely unchanged, so there’s continuity there that may not exist with the Steelers quite yet. For that reason, I think the three point spread is spot on. This will probably be a tighter game than the rosters would imply, but when shit gets tight late in the game, I trust the cooler, veteran head coach, QB, and defense to prevail. Don’t get your betting advice from me, but I’d take the Steelers to cover that spread, just barely.
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